By
Youssef Oukhallou
Mohammed V University of Rabat, Morocco
e-ISBN: 978-605-7602-82-4
Publishing Date: July 30, 2019
File Size: 2,805 MB
Length: xi + 225 pages (PDF)
Language: English
Dimensions: 13,5 x 21,5 cm
This Book is completely open access. You can freely read, download and share with everyone.
This book investigates the relation between economic growth and public investment expenditures. It examines the level and means to improve the macroeconomic effectiveness of government investment spending and explores the concept of optimality under the constraint of debt sustainability. Additionally, this research analyzes the legislative and institutional factors that could slow down the effectiveness of investment expenditures, and provides hints on how the reduction of corruption could help fiscal policy converge toward optimality. The first chapter sheds light on economic growth in the literature as a core variable of the economic activity, its determinants and the role of investment, particularly public investment, as a potential contributor. The second chapter focuses on public investment’s macroeconomic effectiveness, as the first leg of optimality. The emphasis is laid on the examination of the macro-financial framework of Morocco as an example of developing countries, followed by a larger benchmark panel data model. Afterwards, I estimate public investment expenditures’ impact on GDP, along with other variables such as GFCF and public consumption. The third chapter introduces debt sustainability as the second component of public investment optimality. The twofold concept of optimality is then encompassed in an experimental small scale macroeconomic model for public investment policy analysis, on which a series of policy shocks is driven in order to further discuss different hypotheses. Throughout this book, I reveal that the macroeconomic impact of public investment expenditures is below the effectiveness levelhence could not logically be optimal even if public debt is found to be sustainable. Subsequently, a number of effectiveness-oriented institutional recommendations are prescribed. The policy simulation also suggests that an increase in public investment spending that is not totally or predominantly matched with a rise in public revenues has a larger and longer negative impact on public debt than a positive one on GDP growth. On overall, public investment’s optimality in the realistic framework of a developing economy seems to be strictly conditioned by a cumulative series of positive variations combined with the improvement of profitability-based selectivity of investment projects, under the constraint of a debt ratio that should not exceed 60 percent.
Introduction
1. Public investment and output growth in the literature
Introduction
Theoretical and conceptual background
The Classical and Keynesian debate
The Classical framework
The Keynesian perspective
The concept of economic growth in theory
Main contributions of the Growth Theory
Further determinants of economic growth
A review of the empirical studies
The case of developed economies
The case of developing countries
Conclusion
2. Analysis of the Moroccan macro-financial framework
Introduction
Characteristics of the Moroccan economy
A retrospective analysis of GDP’s Dynamics
Public Investment in Morocco: overview and state of affairs
Public companies’ investment
Local Councils’ investment
Government budget investment
A comparative econometrical analysis
Building the panel data model
Estimation method and statistical tests
Empirical results
The macroeconomic impact of public investment in Morocco
Data and econometrical approach
Empirical results
Recommendations and hypotheses
Conclusion
3. Toward an optimal public investment policy: A small scale model analysis
Introduction
Debt sustainability and public investment optimality
Stylized facts of government debt
The concept of debt sustainability
Debt sustainability as a condition for optimality
The small scale model
Model specification and variables choice
The aggregate demand equation
The price-setting equation
The monetary policy rule
The fiscal reaction function and debt constraint
Building the model
Scenarios Simulation and public investment analysis
The economy’s reaction to a public investment shock
The economy’s reaction to a public consumption shock
The economy’s reaction to a variation in public revenues
The economy’s reaction to a variation in public debt
Conclusion
Conclusion
References
Youssef Oukhallou
Mohammed V University of Rabat, Morocco
Youssef Oukhallou is an experienced economist specialized in public finance and development economics. He has a PhD in financial macroeconomics from the Mohammed V University of Rabat (Morocco) and an MSc in economic development and policy analysis from the University of Nottingham (United Kingdom). With a combined experience of over a decade in government procurement, economic journalism and political campaign management, Dr Oukhallou offers in his publications a unique perspective that combines the analysis of legal and institutional underpinnings of economic phenomena with statistic-based inference.
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