Introduction

1. The Data: Available Social Distress Indicators
1.1. Cross-Section: International Indicators
1.2. Time Series: Portugal

2. Social Disruption Indicators: Common Factor and Trend Analysis
2.1. Principal Components – a Brief Overview and Some Extensions
2.2. Cross-Section Analysis: International Indicators
2.3. Time Series Evidence: Portugal

3. Linear Regressions and The Explanation of Individual Series
3.1. Introduction: Missing Observations and Replicated Moment Estimation
3.2. Divorces and Suicides
3.3. Accidents: Total, Fatal; Labor and Road, Total Deaths by External Causes
3.4. Crime and Justice: Reported Crimes, Criminal Convictions
3.5. Law Enforcement: Prison Inmates
3.6. Armed Forces
3.7. Strike Activity

4. The Four Knights of the Apocalypse: Determinants of Each Principal Component
4.1. System-Wide Principal Components – A Theoretical Note
4.2. Estimation: the Explanatory Set, Impact on the Dependent Set and Correlation Analysis

5. The Hand of Justice: Conviction Rates, Armed Forces and Exogeneity Tests

6. Summary and Conclusions

Appendix A
Appendix B

References

Ana Paula Martins

Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Portugal

Dr. Ana Paula Martins studied Economics in Lisbon at Catholic University of Portugal (BA 1982) and concluded a Ph.D. in New York at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Columbia University (1987). She has taught at both schools and at New University of Lisbon graduate and undergraduate courses. Currently, she is Assistant Professor at the Catholic University of Portugal, where she has been teaching Labor Economics and Econometrics. She has published theoretical and applied research articles in Labor Economics and Quantitative Methods in refereed academic journals, and also been presenter and participant in numerous international scientific Conferences on various fields. She was a member of the Catholic University Library Council representing the Economics field.